There is clear evidence that climates are changing around the world, and model projections of future conditions suggest that significant change will continue throughout the 21st century (Stocker et al., 2013). Consequently, there is a substantial need for research to examine how climate change will impact social and ecological systems in order to inform governance of adaptation responses (Adger et al., 2005; Rosenzweig and Wilbanks, 2010; Morecroft et al., 2012). Yet, a significant gap still remains between the emerging climatic risks that are now relatively well understood and the policies and actions that will be needed for the socio-ecosystems to adapt to future change (Ford et al., 2011; Measham et al., 2011). Part of the problem is linked to the knowledge that informs adaptation – it is necessarily uncertain, generally not available at appropriate scales, and often lacking in firm evidential support. As a result of the limitations of data from climate simulations, some are calling for better modelling and use of the data generated (see Moss et al., 2010; Weaver et al., 2013). Others suggest that a broader scope of knowledge must be drawn from to support integrated analyses of the socio-ecosystems themselves, with inputs from a range of sources (Folke et al., 2005; Schipper and Pelling, 2006; Collins and Ison, 2009; Sheppard et al., 2011). It is the integration and application of the diversity of valid knowledge that is explored here from the perspective of regional adaptation case studies.
Generating narratives on future risk to inform regional climate change adaptation planning
Year: 2016
