Widely observed inertia of forest communities contrasts with climate change projections that suggest dramatic alterations of forest composition for the coming decades. Disturbances might be a key process to catalyze changes in tree species composition under environmental change by creating opportunities for ‘new’ species to establish. To test this assumption, we compared two assessments (1993–1995, 2009–2017) from the Swiss National Forest Inventory to evaluate which forests were opened by natural canopy disturbance (that is, wind, insect outbreaks, fire, and drought) and if these disturbances altered tree species composition both in terms of species-specific basal area and recruitment densities. Natural disturbances affected 14% of the Swiss forests within 25 years, with wind and insect outbreaks being the most frequent (75%) and fire and drought being rare (< 1.5%). Disturbances led to a shift from conifer to broadleaf tree species at low elevation, in particular in dense Picea abies stands, but no change was observed at higher elevations. The composition of undisturbed sites persisted during the same period. Our results demonstrate that undisturbed forests widely resist changes in tree species composition as an effect of direct ingrowth by stand-forming species. Disturbance events seem necessary to create opportunities for climatically ‘better suited and site-adapted’ species to (re-)establish and therefore potentially catalyze tree species turnover under environmental changes. We detected a reduction of tree species that were—centuries ago—cultivated outside their primary natural range, in particular P. abies, or depended on traditional management practices (Pinus sylvestris, Castanea sativa), which may inform us on how the projected increase in disturbance frequency and severity might filter tree species composition and hereby alter forest structure.
