As climate policy tools, neither a price set through a carbon tax nor quantity rationing through an emissions trading system is clearly superior to their alternative under all circumstances; considering economic advantages under uncertainty and political economy constraints, real tradeoffs can be mitigated by hybrid approaches. A combination of emissions trading and a carbon tax can leverage synergies if properly aligned. Importantly, the coverage of a tax should be equal to or exceed that of a concurrent trading system to avoid leakage between both instruments. Aside from uncoordinated coexistence, different coordinated combinations are possible based on the degree of synchronicity and the symmetry of application, allowing it to serve as a flexibility option, a transition mechanism, or a price-management mechanism. International experience has shown that the increased flexibility offered by a carbon pricing mix is welcomed by compliance entities. Likewise, the use of a carbon pricing mix to manage price extremes and excessive volatility in the carbon market can help avoid adverse effects, such as bounded rationality in investment decisions and carbon lock-in. Mexico’s emissions are currently on a pathway to nearly achieve its unconditional 2030 contribution, equal to a 22% reduction in GHGs relative to business as usual. Achieving Mexico’s unconditional target with an emissions trading system may result in a carbon price of MXN 74/tCO2e (USD 3/tCO2e) in 2030. Reducing emissions further, to 26% below projected business as usual emissions, may result in a carbon price of MXN 495/tCO2e (USD 23/tCO2e) in 2030. Mexico can implement an emissions trading system while maintaining a stable inflow of carbon pricing revenue by including a carbon price floor. Depending on the level, revenue could then remain consistent with current carbon tax proceeds, even if some allowances are allocated free of cost. The uncertainty analysis presented in this paper suggests approximately a one-in-four chance that an emissions trading system would result in a carbon price of MXN 21/tCO2e (USD 1/tCO2e) or less in 2030. A hybrid approach with a carbon price floor would mitigate the risk of adverse effects and avoid a decline in government revenue.
Achieving the Mexican mitigation targets: Options for an effective carbon pricing policy mix
Year: 2017